Is Bitcoin entering a new bull run?

The crypto market has been relatively quiet for the past few months, leading many to wonder: "Is the bull run over, or are we just resting?" Our quantitative models suggest the latter.

At Quantbreed, we don't rely on gut feelings. We look at data. Let's dive into the three key metrics indicating a potential market surge.

1. The Post-Halving Supply Shock

It has been over a year since the last Bitcoin halving. Historically, the supply shock (reduced daily issuance of new BTC) takes 12-18 months to fully impact the price. We are currently entering that sweet spot where demand remains constant (or grows via ETFs) while supply on exchanges hits multi-year lows.

2. Technical Moving Averages

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the 200-week Moving Average, a critical support level that has marked the bottom of every previous bear market. Furthermore, the 50-day MA is curling up to cross the 200-day MA implies a golden cross is imminent.

Strategy Idea: Use our "Golden Cross" template to automatically buy when this confirms.

3. Institutional Inflows

Global liquidity is rising again as central banks pivot toward rate cuts. Risk assets like tech stocks and crypto are historically the first to benefit from increased M2 money supply.

Conclusion

While we cannot predict the future with 100% certainty, the probabilities are skewed to the upside. The risk/reward ratio for long positions is currently favorable.

However, volatility will remain high. The best way to navigate this choppy water isn't to staring at charts all day, but to set up automated rules that buy dips and take profits along the way.